By: Julius Jönson
How many children per woman do you think are born in Turkey? Whatever you guess, it’s probably higher than the actual figure. Last year, the birth rate in Turkey fell to 1.5 children per woman, the lowest level ever in the country and well below the replacement level of 2.1. The numbers show the extent of the shift towards fewer children and more elderly people that the world is now undergoing. It’s not just countries in Europe or East Asia that are aging rapidly, but also countries usually thought of as young. But it doesn’t end there: as Turkey is a land of contrasts – sometimes described as the land where the East meets the West – the country also holds some of the world’s largest variations in age structure. This fact will put the Turkish state in its current form under increasing pressure in years to come.
The demographic transition in Turkey
During the 20th century, Turkey had very high birth rates. Between 1950 and 2000, the country’s population more than tripled from 20 to 65 million inhabitants. The population has continued to grow, and today almost 90 million people call Turkey home. While this happened, Turkey also developed, and all indicators that in the long-term lead to fewer children per woman point in the right direction: more people are educated, the proportion working in agriculture is decreasing, people are moving into cities, and so on. When one thinks of Turkey, one still thinks of a young country with large families, but the fact is that this image is rapidly becoming outdated. Natural population growth has decreased by a third in the past five years and just like many other countries worldwide, Turkey saw its lowest birth rates ever in 2023.
The UN’s 2022 forecast estimated that Turkey’s population would peak at just under 100 million in the 2050s. Due to rapidly declining birth rates, the 2024 revision of the same forecast now projects a peak of around 90 million people a full decade earlier than previously thought. Over time, falling birth rates lead to a growing number of elders having to be supported by a shrinking workforce, a challenge Turkey shares with several other countries. Between 2024 and 2034, the number of Turks above 65 years old will grow by no less than 42%, while the workforce will only increase by a modest 3,5%. This is problematic for Ankara as Turkey is not a particularly productive country and Turkish businesses are used to a constantly growing workforce. However, there is nothing to say that it must be so: in fact, Turkey is one of the OECD countries with the fastest-growing productivity. As the population ages, Turkey will be forced to learn to do more with less.
So far, there is nothing that stands out in Turkey’s case: it is one of many countries that have very quickly gone from high to low birth rates. Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Thailand also belong to this category. The fact that Turkey is the first major Muslim country to have an aging population might be unique, and it shows that the demographic transition from young to old has reached advanced stages in the Middle East. However, it is not religion or culture, but the enormous differences within the country, that make Turkey such a fascinating example.
Two countries in one – the white and black Turkey
Like many other countries, Turkey has a class of well-educated liberal people who live in megacities like Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, and Bursa. This group is sometimes referred to as “white Turks” and resembles the urban middle class of any European country. The group dominated the country’s politics before Erdoğan came to power in 2002, and identifies with Mustafa Kemal “Atatürk’s” vision of a European and secular Turkey. However, it is not only the values but also the age structure, that resembles Europe. In cities like Istanbul and Ankara, the birth rate was around 1.3 children per woman in 2023, far below the Turkish average.
If one part of the country is characterized by a similarity to Europe, the other half of Turkey is more anchored in the Middle East. The so-called “black Turkey” is more conservative and Islamic, more rural, and identifies to a lesser extent with Atatürk’s secular vision for the country. President Erdoğan has several times declared himself to belong to this group and frequently uses the tension between the “urban elite” and the “real Turkey” that one recognizes from populist politicians from all corners of the world. Since birth rates are generally higher in the conservative countryside than in cities – where children are associated with higher costs and women often have greater independence – black Turkey has grown in strength, and over the past 20 years has given politicians like Erdoğan a path to power. However, this shift has already taken place, and if demographic factors paved the way for Erdoğan, it is now his political projects’ biggest challenge. The main character in this story is the country’s Kurdish minority.
The Kurds – an ever-growing minority
The tension between Turkey and its Kurdish minority is well known. For a long time, Turkey did not recognize the group’s existence, instead referring to Kurds as “mountain Turks” and several times an independent Kurdistan has been in vogue. So what does this have to do with demography? If we study a map of Turkey, we can see that the birth rates in the Kurdish-dominated provinces in the southeast are significantly higher than in the rest of Turkey. The difference is so great that one might have thought the different regions of Turkey were separate countries. The Kurdish areas in the southwest now account for almost half of Turkey’s population growth even though they only comprise about a fifth of the country’s total population. Birth rates are falling here as well, but the fact that the area is growing so strongly within a group that does not necessarily even see itself as part of Turkey will likely create increasing concern in Ankara. Partly due to an increasing Kurdish influx to the country’s major cities, Erdoğan’s AKP party has now lost the majority in Istanbul and Ankara. President Erdoğan recognizes the problem and in 2016 urged Turkish women to have at least 3 children. Turkish women did not think much of the president’s advice, as births per year in Turkey have declined by 27% between 2016 and 2023. Ankara has likely yet to comprehend how fast Turkey is now going to age and that more measures other than simply telling women to have more kids are needed if the decline is to be mitigated. It is also established that more conservative countries often experience even lower birth rates than more liberal countries once birth rates have started falling. This is part of the reason why fertility rates are exceptionally low in East Asia compared to other aging societies. If women cannot combine motherhood and a career, evidence shows that many will choose the option of a career. If Ankara does not work to make this less of a binary choice, Turkey could risk joining other nations with ultra-low fertility rates.
There is no escaping aging
In Turkey, an aging population not only brings about the usual problem of more elderly people having to be supported by a shrinking workforce but might also lead to the composition of the country changing fundamentally. Demographics have already impacted Turkish politics, and as the trend gains momentum, everything from foreign policy to cultural issues might be affected. The case of Turkey shows that the assumptions in the demographic transition – that birth rates will decrease when a country develops economically – apply virtually everywhere. As more and more countries outside the Western world now have advanced economies, there will be examples of aging populations on all continents, within all cultures and all religions. Turkey is the first in the Muslim world, and will thus become especially interesting to follow. Labor shortages caused by demographic changes might prompt Ankara to import foreign labor from the Arab world or bring about changes in the attitude towards women working. How different societies will react to the challenge will likely vary greatly, and shake up truths that have been established for several generations. What is certain, however, is that our image of Turkey as a young and rapidly growing country no longer matches reality.
Photo: Johnny Africa / Unsplash
