Huxit is a term that originated around the time of Brexit. The term means exactly the same thing, only with a different country: the possibility that Hungary will leave the European Union in the future. Since Hungary joined the EU in 2004, the country has developed into an influential but controversial member state. What began as a promising democratic state after the fall of the Soviet Union has blossomed into a country where democracy, the rule of law, and freedom are under pressure. After multiple warnings and sanctions from the Council and other member states, little has changed. This leads us to an urgent question: how is it possible that Hungary, despite multiple warnings and sanctions, is still part of the EU?
Who is in power in Hungary?
Viktor Orbán was born in 1963 and grew up as a fanatical, know-it-all child. He studied law and in 1988 founded a party: the Alliance of Young Democrats (later Fidesz). This group of intellectuals was strongly opposed to the situation in Hungary at the time. Hungary was a satellite state of the Soviet Union, and the members of Fidesz were strongly opposed to this. Orbán and his colleagues lobbied for free citizenship and liberal economic and social policies. On March 25, 1990, Hungary held its first democratic elections. This marked the start of Orbán’s political career, and he took his place in the opposition.
In the 1990s, the left-wing government made a mess of Hungarian politics, which Orbán saw as an opportunity. By mobilizing the right wing on the basis of nationalist and conservative ideas, Orbán managed to win the elections. At the age of 35, Viktor Orbán became Prime Minister of Hungary.
After a brief pause, Fidesz strikes back twice as hard and returns to parliament with 52% of the vote. By working together with the Christian Democrats, they have a two-thirds majority in parliament and can amend the constitution. And indeed that happens. The democracy that began to flourish in Hungary in the 1990s, made possible in part by Orbán, is gradually being dismantled by him.
Press freedom in Hungary is under threat as Orbán’s political cronies buy up all the independent media. By 2020, this had already affected 470 news organizations. In addition, the Hungarian prime minister has close ties with the head of state of Poland, partly because of the democratic erosion that was also taking place in Poland. The governments of several Eastern European countries are also working together in the Visegrad Group (V4). Together, they form an anti-migration front within the EU. Orbán’s parliament has also significantly curtailed the power of the Supreme Court in Hungary through a constitutional amendment. The institutions that were supposed to keep Orbán in check have lost.
His two biggest enemies at the moment are George Soros and Judith Sargentini. George Soros is an American-Hungarian businessman and activist who is committed to democratisation, including in Hungary. Soros has his own foundation through which he finances organizations in 100 different countries that seek to develop and promote democracy, press freedom, women’s rights, and the reception of migrants. Judith Sargentini is the EU parliamentarian leading the investigation into Hungary with regard to the rule of law in the country. Both individuals are diametrically opposed to the policies Orbán is trying to implement and are therefore seen as enemies of the state.
The population is polarised. Orbán’s supporters are fully on board. They, too, see the European Union as the enemy. They argue that the EU’s interference and additional obligations are bad and do not benefit ordinary Hungarians. They claim that Orbán stands up for the average citizen. On the other hand, there is also a group of Hungarians who view Orbán as a dictator: they argue that the population no longer has access to reliable information and that the prime minister has too much power.
Hungary and the EU, before and after accession
Since the fall of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, Hungary has been a democratic country where liberal values are central. European integration is a logical consequence of this. Hungary’s democracy was still in its infancy, but the West wanted to draw the former Eastern Bloc countries closer out of fear of a resurgent Russia. Although European democratic values were not yet strongly formalized, Hungary (along with other Eastern European countries) became a member on May 1, 2004. 84% of the Hungarian population was in favor of the country’s accession.
Since Hungary’s accession in 2004, the country has undergone many developments. Hungary’s GDP per capita has risen from €12,700 (2003) to €30,400 (2024). This means that GDP per capita has multiplied by a factor of 1,39. In addition, total employment has increased from 3,957,490 people (2003) to 4,788,060 people (2024). That is a growth of 20.98%.
Every member of the European Union can benefit from the EU budget. Once your country has a large economy, funding can also increase. This also applies to Hungary. Hungary receives around €3.4 billion in funding and subsidies. Most of this is used for natural resources and the environment (53.9%). In addition, 41.7% is used to promote cohesion, resilience and values. Finally, the rest of the money is spent on (1) the single market, innovation, and digital policy, (2) migration and border management, (3) security and defence, (4) neighboring countries and the world, and (5) European public policy.
The seven-year EU budget is astronomical. The conditionality mechanism has been set up to protect the money and the member states. Under the conditionality mechanism, the EU can suspend payments if they violate European rules on the rule of law. The mechanism is subject to conditions. Under these conditions, the European Commission may apply the mechanism: (1) at least one of the principles (referred to in the mechanism’s regulations) of the rule of law must have been violated, (2) the violation must relate to actions and situations attributable to public authorities, (3) the violation must pose a serious risk to the financial management of the budget or the general financial interests of the European Union. This mechanism was applied to Hungary for the first time in December 2022. A total of €6.3 billion was frozen. This was combined with 27 conditions that Hungary must meet to counter the erosion of the rule of law. Some of these conditions have been met, which meant that funds were released again for Hungary in December 2023. For example, the country has strengthened the independence of the Supreme Court.
Opinions of each other
On the one hand, there are politicians who argue that the EU shares several characteristics with the Soviet Union. All rules are drawn up by Brussels and national politicians no longer have any decision-making power. In the 1990s, Hungary was a satellite state of the USSR and only recently gained its freedom. They would not let that happen again. Viktor Orbán himself also argues that there is life outside the EU. However, the prime minister has made it clear that Hungary has no intention of leaving the EU. So there is no question of leaving, but according to Orbán, reform is needed. New parliamentary elections will be held in Hungary in 2026. The population’s stance on European interference will certainly play a role in this.
Hungary receives subsidies and funding for the development of the country, with a focus on the rule of law, democracy, and human rights. As mentioned above, this amounts to 3.4 billion euros per year. If Hungary leaves the EU, it will have to give up this extra pocket money. The position of EU members is becoming increasingly negative towards Hungary. The policy preferences of the current parliament are not in line with the priorities of the European Union. Hungary often stands in the way of Ukraine, and Orbán’s government wants nothing to do with the EU asylum pact. In addition, Orbán has a two-thirds majority in parliament, which means he can easily amend the constitution and thus limit the checks and balances. Migrants are demonized, the right to freedom of expression is continuously being restricted, and there is almost no independent media left in the country. In addition, the country is dangerous for LGBTI people. In short, the EU is not happy with Hungary, so why cannot Brussels kick Hungary out?
Huxit against its will
According to the Treaty of Lisbon (2007), a country cannot be expelled from the European Union against its will. A country can only leave the EU voluntarily. In addition, voting rights in the Council can be revoked. One of the core values of the European Union is the rule of law. If this is eroded too far, the next step would seem to be Huxit. However, this is not yet the case. There is a lot of criticism of the country, but the race is not over yet. The core values of freedom, peace, and development are still central to the EU and Europe, and Hungary can still play an important role in this.
Conclusion
Although Hungary clashes with the norms and values of the European Union in several areas, it is legally impossible and economically undesirable to expel Hungary from the EU. The EU’s tactics therefore remain focused on pressure and financial incentives, in the hope of restoring the rule of law. On the other hand, Orbán continues to demonize the European Union, causing Hungarian public opinion toward the EU to become increasingly negative. The situation is in a delicate balance: the EU is dissatisfied but limited; Hungary is critical but dependent on financial resources. The coming years, particularly the 2026 elections, will determine the country’s course. One thing is certain: for the time being, the relationship between the EU and Hungary will remain an area of tension in which political interests, principles of the rule of law, and national identity continue to clash.
Photo by Ervin Lukacs via unsplash
