On 25th November three Ukrainian naval vessels attempted to leave the Kerch Strait after failing to enter the Azov Sea. While retreating, they were attacked and seized by the Coast Guard of the Russian Federal Security Service. The capture of the ships represents a growing escalation in the tensions between Russia and Ukraine. It also occurred amid a series of incidents in the area, raising the possibility of an open military confrontation. In the context of the illegal occupation of Crimea and the proxy-war waged in the separatist region of Donbass, there is little chance of a conflict resolution in the foreseeable future.
At the request of both Ukraine and Russia, the Security Council held an emergency meeting on 26th November. A particular point of contention occurred in the preliminary stage of the meeting when the agenda set out by Russia was rejected due to the fact that its title suggested a violation of Russia’s borders. After the rejection of the agenda, Russia sought to portray the events that transpired the previous day as an infringement of its territorial sovereignty and a deterioration of geopolitical tensions by the United States. Ukraine has called for further sanctions on Russia with the purpose of exerting political pressure. It has also shared the existence of reported intelligence of a planned Russian ground invasion in Mariupol’ and Berdyans’k.
Crimea’s annexation, the Kerch Strait Bridge and the legal implications
From Russia’s perspective, it is indisputable that Crimea is now part of Russia and that the referendum held in Crimea for self-determination conferred legal validity to its claim. However, Russia’s conduct runs afoul of international law. Besides a clear violation of the UN Charter, its departure from international norms is also supported by a lack of substantive recognition by other states of the annexation and a non-binding General Assembly resolution affirming its commitment to Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders. An analysis made by The Völkerrechtsblog provides a perspective on the legal status of the Azov Sea and Kerch Strait after the institution of arbitral proceedings by Ukraine against Russia. It explores two scenarios in determining their legal status: the first one of the internal waters of both Ukraine and Russia forming a single bay regime and the second one of a devolution into territorial waters of both Ukraine and Russia. It concludes that the legal basis (noting a degree of great uncertainty) on which Ukraine could proceed is either an invocation of violation of its customary rights of coastal state sovereignty, rights of navigation under the Cooperation Agreement and customary international law (under scenario one) or, additionally, violation of the UNCLOS (under scenario two).
Russian’s foreign policy: its consequences and roots
The current foreign policy employed by Russia constitutes a threat to the security of the European Union and to the territorial integrity of several states such as Ukraine or Georgia. The most recent actions taken by Russia (annexation of Crimea, covert support for the separatists) highlight a disregard for the norms of international law and an emboldened approach despite the sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union. There are several factors that led to a certain coercive ineffectiveness of the sanctions. Fractures in the transatlantic alliance, doubts in the European Union regarding the extension of the sanctions and a lack of enforcement mechanisms cast a shadow on a concrete deterrent dissuading Russia from further incursions. The sanctions might also lead in the future to an economic insulation of its economy to counteract any further negative effects.
In order to understand the current dissensions, it is worth exploring certain elements of the Russian foreign policy. The Lowy Institute explores the core goals of Putin in his new presidential mandate: domestic political consolidation and the diffusion of Russia as an indispensable power in international affairs. It also captures the concept of national interest as the key driver of foreign policy which operates in tandem with domestic political authority. The West is perceived as threatening Russia’s interests due to an ideological conflict between liberal democracy and national conservatism but also due to a conflict between geopolitical ambitions. Russia’s foreign policy encompasses both an ideological background of historical exceptionalism and an assertive drive that hinder any sort of successful negotiations.
References
Live Blog: Ukraine In Crisis – November 27, 2018 – rferl.org
Russia Resists Western Calls to Free Captured Ukrainian Ships – November 26, 2018 – themoscowtimes.com
Ukraine declares martial law amid intensifying standoff with Russia – November 26, 2018 – cnbc.com
A Defiant Russia Builds Barriers to U.S. Sanctions – May 29, 2018 – stratfor.com
Economic Sanctions: Too Much of a Bad Thing – June 1, 1998 – brookings.edu
GOING LEGIT? THE FOREIGN POLICY OF VLADIMIR PUTIN – September 17, 2018 – lowyinstitute.org
Meet the most dangerous man in the world – September 21, 2018 – theneweuropean.co.uk
Explainer – Troubled waters: what’s behind the Russia, Ukraine naval standoff? – November 26, 2018 – reuters.com
Ukraine v. Russia: Passage through Kerch Strait and the Sea of Azov – January 10, 2018 – voelkerrechtsblog.org
What Is Russia’s Foreign Policy? – historians.
Live Blog: Ukraine In Crisis – November 27, 2018 – rferl.org
Russia Resists Western Calls to Free Captured Ukrainian Ships – November 26, 2018 – themoscowtimes.com
Ukraine declares martial law amid intensifying standoff with Russia – November 26, 2018 – cnbc.com
A Defiant Russia Builds Barriers to U.S. Sanctions – May 29, 2018 – stratfor.com
Economic Sanctions: Too Much of a Bad Thing – June 1, 1998 – brookings.edu
GOING LEGIT? THE FOREIGN POLICY OF VLADIMIR PUTIN – September 17, 2018 – lowyinstitute.org
Meet the most dangerous man in the world – September 21, 2018 – theneweuropean.co.uk
Explainer – Troubled waters: what’s behind the Russia, Ukraine naval standoff? – November 26, 2018 – reuters.com
Ukraine v. Russia: Passage through Kerch Strait and the Sea of Azov – January 10, 2018 – voelkerrechtsblog.org
What Is Russia’s Foreign Policy? – historians.org
Photo: Tib Tib, Flickr Images
