Compared to its neighbours, Angola has become an increasingly important actor on the global stage. It seems that the new leadership of Joao Lorenco has brought stability. With increasing investments and diversification, Angola has quietly avoided the resource curse and tackled corruption. Is this new stability a sign of booming development or just a smokey mirror?
Introduction and history
Road to independence
Following the Democratic Republic of Congo’s independence, Angola sought similar ends through an armed struggle against their Portuguese colonisers starting in 1961. From these three movements emerged; The Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) , the National Front for the Liberation of Angola (FNLA), and National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA). Continuous conflict and fighting between the three movements only led to Portuguese success in the country, until the coup in April 1974. The Carnation Revolution removed Dictator Marcello Caetano and kickstarted a wave of independence in former Portuguese colonies. White initial efforts by the three movements for a joint transition, Angola fell into a civil war. The United States of America, in the context of the Cold War, provided training and aid to both the FNLA and UNITA. Similar efforts were made by China, sending military personnel to the NFLA. While the Soviet Union provided resources and training to the MPLA. In November 1965, the MPLA and UNITA stormed Luanda and consolidated power, without the help of the FNLA. On November 11th 1965, the leader of the MPLA, Dr. Agostinho Neto announced Angolan independence. Following this, a civil war ensued between the three movements which only ended in the early 1990s. However, the MPLA has been able to practically work as a one party state even with UNITA’s continued insurgency, ruled under Jonas Savimbi until his death in 2002.
Angola during the Presidency of Jose Eduardo dos Santos
Chosen by the MPLA after the passing of Agostinho Neto in 1979, José Eduardo dos Santos became president of Angola until 2017. Under his leadership, Angola became increasingly undemocratic and the 2010 constitutional reforms centered power around him and extended his rule.
Booming natural resources industries, such as crude oil and diamonds, helped Angola’s influence and growing corruption and patronage. Under dos Santos, Angola became a typical example of a developing country falling victim to the resource curse. State control of natural resources caused unearned profits on minerals such as oil, which funded most of Angola’s fiscal policy. Over 90% of Angola’s export revenues in 2010 came from oil only. This became hugely important for the state oil company called Sonangol where dos Santos appointed his own daughter, Isabel dos Santos, as chair.
According to Rentier State Theory, this causes problems for democracy and development. Indeed, it hinders the constituents from holding politicians accountable, and elites overlook public investment and projects as fiscal funds do not come from the public, as mineral rents replace the public’ taxes. What should be public funds only go to the elite, causing huge income inequality.
Joao Lourenco and his reforms
After almost 4 decades of ruling, dos Santos announced on multiple occasions that he would step down. While many had expected for the President to appoint either one of his children or the Vice President, the choice was made to appoint defence minister Joao Lourenco as the new party leader. In the results of the August elections, the MPLA came victorious again, confirming Lourenco as the new President of Angola.
From the start Lourenco affirmed his commitment to cracking down on corruption. This was made evident, as he quickly removed dos Santos’ children from their position of power. The daughter was removed as chair of Sonangol. Similarly, the son was removed as head of the country’s sovereign wealth fund. Following this, several high profile cases brought suit to former politicians and elites under dos Santos accountable for corruption. This was done for multiple reasons. In 2017, Angola’s oil dependent economy was doing poorly, and Sonangol and the oil industry became a risk for investment from foreign companies, many of which threatened to limit their activities in the country. This severe crackdown on corruption was done in an attempt to bring credibility to Angola to secure much needed foreign investments. However under Isabel dos Santos, Sonangol acquired businesses that allowed them to work in areas much more typical for a government. This included banks, media and electrical infrastructure companies. Under her leadership, the company responsible for most of Angola’s fiscal revenue, acquired major amounts of debt.
Sonangol and the government structure of patronage meant that Lourenco was unable to crack down on corruption without making severe institutional changes in Angola’s governance. Under dos Santos, patronage was hugely important. The chief executives of Sonangol did not report to government ministers but rather to dos Santos, who got their loyalty by having appointed them himself. However, the step down of dos Santos presented an opportunity to remove the family’s ties to the government. Lourenco appointed his own people across government and the oil industry, to resist Isabel de Santos’ power. As a result, foreign investment became less risky.
Many other moves helped. Under the National Development Plan 2023–2027, Angola has vowed to diversify by improving its agriculture. Commitments have been made to focus on improving human capital, agricultural opportunities from corn, beans, cereals, legumes and bananas, and employment. Though this has been hard to achieve successfully. Development infrastructure and productivity still remain low and the economy remains mostly dependent on oil. However, attempts at diversification have piqued the interests for foreign investment especially by global superpowers.
Global superpower investments and its geopolitical importance
Investments from the European Union, has focused on helping Angola with diversification and sustainable development and technology. The Lobito Corridor under the Global Gateway strategy, has invested 57 million dollars into Angola’s agriculture in 2025 alone. Other notable projects include the Sustainable Investment Facilitation Agreement (SIFA), where the focus is on investing in sustainability and improving Angolan business strategies, to make them more credible, efficient and transparent. This would include transparency of investment regulations and promoting potential sectors such as sustainable energy. These investments are crucial for Angola as it increases its credibility to foreign investors and helps establish better relations with key actors. The new government’s openness under Lourenco has allowed for improved relations with the EU and cooperation on varied topics and interests. In 2018, the EU and Angola expressed shared interests in security, specifically in maritime. The port of Lobito has been heavily invested by the EU as it is extremely important in mineral supply chains between Central Africa and the EU. The EU is actively competing with the Gulf States and their investments. EU countries like Italy, are reliant on trade with Angola for energy. Trade through the Suez Canal becomes increasingly unstable, hence investments through the Atlantic Maritime Route. Both the EU and Gulf States have invested in Lobito port, whether on infrastructure or logistics. This competition is driving further investment in Angola as countries fight to have influence in the Angolan economy to protect their mineral supply chains. This increases Angola’s importance on the global stage as it has become a hub for investment and is balancing other global actors’ powers, most notably the EU and the Gulf States.
Xi’s Belt Road Initiative has vowed to invest billions in Africa. This is very evident with Angola, as in2026, China has committed to investing 21.8 billion dollars into Angola. This is mostly in sectors like energy and infrastructure and making China now the largest investor in Angola; accounting for about 80% of its investors.
The US’ America First Policies have put an important focus on maintaining stable trade with Africa. For the United States there is a major investment opportunity in Angola from oil, to medicine, agriculture and digital networks. Under Joe Biden, the goals for investment in Angola was about human rights, sustainable energy and security. Much like the EU, the Lobito Corridor and its investments are of huge importance. As of 2024, the United States had already invested more than 3 billion dollars into Angola. However, it is important to note that for the US, Cold War friction still remains. During independence and the Angolan civil war, the MPLA had a communist ideology that mostly disappeared with dos Santos. Yet the party and country still have close ties to Russia and China, and underTrump, tensions between the US and China have been made very clear. Although such tensions have existed for a while, even during Biden’s administration. US investments can be seen as countering Chinese influence in Angola, as well as the whole region as a whole.
Positioning itself as a hub for investment with a diverse set of investors has Angola working as an intermediary power. As investments from global superpower pour in to balance the others’ influence, Angola benefits from becoming an increasingly important actor. With minerals, such as oil, cobalt and diamonds, many nations rely on its Lobito Port and invest heavily to maintain security of the Atlantic Maritime Route. While keeping close ties to Russia and China, Angola practices non-alignment, allowing for this battle of investments.
Additionally, countries have provided resources and funds to Angola’s military increasing its global status and power. Between 2020 and 2023, the US gave 18 millions dollars in military assistance and is looking to expand funding into cybersecurity and Angola’s Navy. Simultaneously, China’s National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation (CATIC) has provided 36 million dollars worth of equipment to the Angolan military and India provides 200 million dollar defence credit to Angola.
Angola is becoming increasingly important and has used this to its advantage by allowing global competition in its military, industries and investments. Major actors include the US, China, the EU, India and the UAE. All of which are interested not only to balance each other’s influence, but because of the necessity of Angola’s minerals for technology, especially renewables, energy from oil and diamonds.
Stability?
Has all this diversification really allowed for stability? Has corruption and inequality disappeared under Lourenco? In reality, Angola’s economy is still heavily dependent on minerals. Additionally, old elites from dos Santos’ rule have not fully vanished. While Lurenco has managed to remove dos Santos’ family influence out of Angola’s politics, there are still many loyal to dos Santos. This is due to the agreement of negotiated hegemony that was agreed upon in internal meetings of the MPLA. During dos Santos rule, the MPLA functioned with non-negotiated hegemony, an agreement of negotiated hegemony which focused on moving away from non-negotiated hegemony from dos Santos’ rule. While this meant that Lourenco was endorsed by the party, it meant that dos Santos played a dominant role within the party. Under negotiated hegemony, dos Santos loyalists had to be appointed into high ranking positions, which continues tensions within the party.
Additionally, foreign direct investment has allowed for stability, but much of the investment still mostly benefits elites as opposed to the public. As a result inequality remains, which has allowed for resentment against Chinese people in Angola. Anti-Chinese protests were sparked in 2025, as many Angolans see the Chinese as exploiting their country. In Chinese investments, Angolans tend to be overlooked for employment or only as manual labourers. Angolans do not necessarily reap the benefits of the investments which continue to benefit the concentrated elite.
Many questions remain on how Joao Lourenco will continue to rule. Is this strategy of diversification for the sake of Angola or just a way to maintain his political power in an oil-dependent country whose economy is extremely sensitive to oil shocks?
Photo by aboodi vesakaran via https://unsplash.com/photos/a-red-and-yellow-flag-qKaZdqHKMq4
